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Opinion

State of the Nigerian Economy: Government Claims of Growth Versus Growing Hardship Among Nigerians*

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By Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko

There is an obvious irony in the country at the moment marked by the factually error-prone assumption by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration that maintains that the economy is recovering and is on a sustainable growth path. Official data support parts of this position, but household-level data show that most Nigerians continue to face severe economic hardship. From a human rights perspective, the key test is whether macroeconomic growth is translating into the realization of the right to food, decent work, and an adequate standard of living. This is the heart of the matter.

Last week, the spokesperson of President Tinubu, Mr. Bayo Onanuga made a highly unproven claim that the story about mass hunger in Nigeria is not true. He said he made a tour by road from Ogun State to Lagos State or so, and he saw public works such as highway construction going on and he saw that many ordinary people were going about their daily tasks which gives him the impression that all is well with Nigerians. This claim by Onanuga is simplistic and lacks logical grounding. The truth is that even the president has personally pleaded with Nigerians to exercise patience and that the economic reforms his administration is implementing, would inevitably lift millions of Nigerians away from poverty. So if the president acknowledge that there is hardship in Nigeria, why is his appointees Mr. Bayo Onanuga making a contradictory claim? Anyway, the government broadly, feels that it is getting it fine with rebuilding the national economy.

What the President Tinubu’s government points to: Gross Domestic Product growth and macroeconomic stability:
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that real Gross Domestic Product growth picked up in 2025 after rebasing the national accounts to 2019. Growth was 3.13 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 1, January to March 2025, accelerated to 4.23 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 2, April to June 2025, and was 3.98 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 3, July to September 2025. The full-year 2025 estimate is 3.87 percent, with Quarter 4, October to December 2025 at 4.07 percent Year-on-Year.

International institutions project continued expansion. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 4.0 percent growth in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026. The World Bank projects 4.2 percent in 2025, rising to 4.4 percent by 2027.

Other indicators cited by government include: Gross Domestic Product of $285.003 billion nominal and $2.254 trillion in Purchasing Power Parity for 2025; foreign exchange reserves above $42 billion; a current account surplus of 6.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product in the first half of 2025; and a projected decline in public debt from 42.9 percent to 39.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product. Headline inflation eased from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025 after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index. The National Bureau of Statistics recorded 15.69 percent in April 2026, while the International Monetary Fund estimates 16.0 percent for 2026.

The reality on the ground: Rising poverty, food insecurity, and constrained livelihoods. This is a generally agreed factually accurate report from the streets.
The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update states that poverty increased to 63 percent in 2025, or approximately 140 million Nigerians living below the poverty line. This is up from 56 percent in 2023 and 61 percent in 2024. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects 141 million Nigerians, or 62 percent, will be poor in 2026.

Food affordability is the most acute pressure point. The World Bank reports that the cost of a basic food basket has increased five times since 2019, with poor households spending up to 70 percent of income on food. The World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria stated: “Food inflation is the biggest tax on the poor”. The International Monetary Fund also flagged that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in the second half of 2025.

Besides, real household welfare is deteriorating. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that while nominal household spending grew 19.6 percent to 139.3 trillion Naira in 2025, real spending contracted by 2.5 percent after inflation. Labour groups argue that Gross Domestic Product figures are disconnected from living conditions, describing the situation as “growth without development”. Official unemployment is estimated at 4.9 percent for 2025, but informal employment remains very high at 92.8 percent according to National Bureau of Statistics and International Labour Organization estimates.

Why growth is not reaching most Nigerians: An exclusionary pattern:
Analysts attribute the gap to the structure of growth. Expansion is concentrated in services and capital-intensive industry, while agriculture, which employs most poor people, is lagging. The International Monetary Fund projects per-capita income growth of only 0.6 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026, which is too low to reduce poverty in a meaningful way. ActionAid Nigeria notes that the federal budget rose from $3.1 billion in 1999 to $36 billion in 2025, yet poverty increased from 42.7 percent to 61 percent over the same period.

The World Bank frames this as a rights and policy challenge: “The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians — especially the poor and vulnerable”. It recommends removing trade barriers, improving fiscal transparency, and expanding social protection through regular cash transfers.

Conclusion
By macroeconomic measures, Nigeria’s economy is growing faster, inflation is down from its peak, and external buffers are stronger. However, with poverty at 63 percent, food costs rising sharply, and real household spending declining, growth has not yet produced broad-based improvements in living standards. Until policy links Gross Domestic Product growth to agriculture, jobs, and food affordability, many Nigerians will continue to experience what labour groups describe as “growth without development”. (Authoritative sources: National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Nigeria Development Update, International Monetary Fund, PricewaterhouseCoopers, ActionAid Nigeria.)

*EMMANUEL NNADOZIE ONWUBIKO is the founder of the HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA and was NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF THE NATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION OF NIGERIA.

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Opinion

Elders’ worrying drug trafficking trend

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Comrade Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko

By Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko

The Rising Involvement of Elderly Nigerians in Drug Trafficking and the commensurate pro-active NDLEA’s Intelligence-Led Operations and Successful Prosecutions of these hard drug traffickers is a very worrying trend in Nigeria but at the same time commendable on the part of the counter-narcotics agency the NDLEA.

To us in HURIWA, it is definitely of grave concern over the disturbing emergence of elderly Nigerians as active participants in illicit drug trafficking and peddling, describing the trend as a dangerous moral and social decline that threatens the nation’s traditional values and undermines efforts to protect Nigerian youths from substance abuse.

But a recollection of what scientists identified as the forgotten psychology of African elders and the spiritual world, would remind us of the fact that the growing involvement of Nigerian elders in crimes of hard drug criminal networks, is a sign that the concept of elders as the bridge between the young and our respected traditional and cultural values is deteriorating at a very faster speed. This is what these unprecedented arrests by the NDLEA of elders in hard drugs crimes reveals. Once more, we the people of Nigeria owe a great deal of commendations for the proactive management team at the NDLEA.

We will get some citations from the scholarly work of Henry Wasosa of the Department of Theology, Ethics, Religious studies and Philosophy at the prestigious Catholic University of Zimbabwe, Harare, who dealt with the topic of ‘The Forgotten Psychology of African Elders and the Spiritual world’. A reading of this work clearly shows how bad things have become when we analyse the growing and frightening involvement of elderly citizens in hard drugs crimes in Nigeria which has come to the forefront of our national conversation because of the unprecedented arrests of elderly citizens caught up in narcotics trafficking in Nigeria By the Brigadier General Mohamed Buba Marwa-led National Drugs Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA).

This aforementioned study by Henry Wasosa explores the often-overlooked psychological and cultural role of African community elders as spiritual authorities and custodians of communal well-being. In many African societies, elders are historically perceived as intermediaries between the living and the spiritual world, endowed with the ability to pronounce blessings or curses believed to directly affect individuals, families, and the land. This indigenous psychology rooted in collective consciousness, moral reciprocity, and metaphysical causality has gradually been eroded by Western education, urbanization, and changing religious orientations. Drawing from African philosophy, cultural psychology, and anthropology, the paper argued under my interrogation by the psychologist in Zimbabwe aforementioned, for the preservation of this cultural heritage as a vital component of African identity, unity and social development. HURIWA argues too that the emergence of the growing trend of elderly citizens of Nigeria becoming involved in narcotics crimes deserves and demands strategic medic advocacy campaigns to stop this trend from continuing. This is a task we have set for patriotic Nigerians.

As a way of explanation, the aforementioned scholar informed us that in the worldview of many African societies, elders hold a revered position as custodians of wisdom, mediators of disputes, and intermediaries between the living and the spiritual realm [1]. Their authority extends beyond political leadership or social guidance; it encompasses a profound spiritual mandate. Within this framework, blessings pronounced by elders are believed to bring prosperity, fertility, and peace, while curses can invoke misfortune, illness, or social disharmony [2]. This cultural psychology, deeply embedded in collective consciousness, has historically ensured moral discipline, social cohesion, and a sense of continuity between generations.
However, the forces of colonization, Western education, religious change, and globalization have significantly diminished the influence of elders’ spiritual authority.

Hebry Wasosa was also quick to suggest that many younger Africans now view such beliefs as outdated or incompatible with modern rationalism, often dismissing them as superstition. This epistemic shift has implications not only for cultural identity but also for the moral and social frameworks that underpin African communities.

While recognizing the benefits of modern education and global integration, the scholar contends that erasing indigenous psychological systems risks undermining African unity, moral order, and self-determination. Ubuntu is a Southern African philosophy emphasizing human interconnectedness and the moral imperative to care for others, often summarized as “I am because we are”.

It is in a bid to find a way back to waging strategic advocacy campaigns to dissuade Nigerian elders from deliberately becoming involved in the perpetuation of the sophisticated organised crime of hard drugs trafficking that the HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (HURIWA) said the recent arrests by the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) of elderly suspects, including two grandfathers allegedly caught supplying illicit drugs to secondary school students in Umuahia, Abia State, as well as previous arrests of octogenarians in Abia and Ekiti States for alleged drug-related offences, should serve as a wake-up call to government, families, religious institutions and communities to urgently address the socio-economic and moral factors driving some senior citizens into criminal enterprises.

The rights group noted that old age has always been revered in African society as a period associated with wisdom, integrity, mentorship and moral leadership. It therefore described as heartbreaking the allegation that individuals old enough to be grandparents are now being linked to the distribution of dangerous narcotics, including to vulnerable teenagers and school children.

According to HURIWA, while every suspect remains entitled to the constitutional presumption of innocence until proven guilty by a court of competent jurisdiction, the repeated arrests of elderly persons for similar offences point to a troubling pattern that deserves serious national attention beyond routine criminal prosecution.
The association observed that the phenomenon may not be unconnected with the prevailing economic hardship confronting millions of Nigerians, particularly retirees and elderly citizens who struggle daily with inadequate pensions, rising inflation, poor healthcare, increasing cost of living and the gradual collapse of traditional family support systems.

HURIWA said that although economic hardship can never justify criminal conduct, government must honestly confront the reality that widespread poverty and social neglect have made some vulnerable elderly citizens susceptible to recruitment by organised drug trafficking syndicates seeking individuals who may attract less suspicion from law enforcement agencies.
The association stated that criminal organisations have continued to evolve sophisticated methods of evading security agencies, including recruiting women, the elderly and other vulnerable persons to distribute illicit substances. It stressed, however, that recent intelligence-driven operations by the NDLEA have demonstrated that no criminal, irrespective of age or status, is beyond the reach of the law.

HURIWA therefore applauds the Chairman/Chief Executive Officer of the NDLEA, Brigadier General Mohamed Buba Marwa (Rtd.), and the officers and men of the agency for sustaining what it described as an unprecedented level of professionalism, operational efficiency and intelligence gathering in the nation’s fight against narcotics trafficking.
The association said the consistency with which NDLEA operatives have uncovered sophisticated drug trafficking networks across airports, seaports, highways, courier companies, markets, residential communities and educational environments reflects a remarkable institutional transformation worthy of national recognition.
HURIWA further commended the agency for refusing to be influenced by the age, social standing or perceived vulnerability of suspects, insisting that equality before the law remains one of the strongest pillars of constitutional democracy.
The rights body also praised the NDLEA for adopting a balanced and humane approach in handling teenage victims of drug abuse by placing them on counselling and rehabilitation instead of merely treating them as criminals.
According to HURIWA, such a strategy reflects international best practices, recognising that many young drug users are themselves victims of exploitation by criminal networks and therefore deserve opportunities for rehabilitation and reintegration into society.
The association equally expressed satisfaction with the growing record of successful prosecutions secured by the NDLEA against drug traffickers across the country.
HURIWA recalled that for many years, Nigerians expressed concern over the inability of anti-drug efforts to translate into sustained convictions and dismantling of criminal networks. Today, however, the agency has continued to demonstrate remarkable diligence in ensuring that investigations culminate in successful prosecutions, forfeiture of criminal assets and the disruption of organised narcotics syndicates.
According to HURIWA, these legal victories are restoring public confidence in Nigeria’s criminal justice system while helping to rebuild the country’s international image, which suffered for decades because of the activities of transnational drug trafficking organisations.
The association noted that every successful prosecution sends a clear message that Nigeria is no longer a safe haven for drug barons and criminal cartels, while simultaneously reassuring the international community that the country is making measurable progress in combating organised crime.
HURIWA also commended the expanding collaboration between the NDLEA and other security agencies, describing inter-agency cooperation as indispensable in confronting the increasingly sophisticated operations of international drug trafficking networks.
The association further applauded the agency’s nationwide anti-drug advocacy campaigns in schools, markets, motor parks, places of worship and communities, saying that prevention through education remains as important as arrests and prosecutions.
HURIWA urged parents, teachers, religious leaders, traditional rulers, civil society organisations and community leaders to become more actively involved in protecting young Nigerians from substance abuse by promoting responsible parenting, moral instruction and community vigilance.
The association also called on the Federal Government to strengthen social protection programmes for elderly citizens by ensuring prompt payment of pensions, improving access to affordable healthcare, expanding economic support initiatives for retirees and addressing the broader socio-economic conditions that expose vulnerable citizens to criminal exploitation.
HURIWA stressed that while compassion should always be extended to elderly Nigerians facing genuine economic difficulties, such sympathy must never be interpreted as tolerance for criminal conduct capable of destroying the lives and futures of innocent young people.
The association maintained that anyone found culpable after due judicial process must face the full weight of the law irrespective of age, occupation or social status.
HURIWA reassured the NDLEA of its unwavering support in the agency’s relentless campaign against illicit drug production, trafficking and abuse, urging the officers and men of the organisation not to relent despite the enormous risks associated with confronting organised criminal syndicates.
The association also appealed to Nigerians to continue providing credible intelligence to security agencies, emphasising that the fight against illicit drugs cannot be won by government alone but requires collective vigilance and active public participation.
HURIWA believes that the recent wave of arrests and the increasing number of successful prosecutions by the NDLEA represent significant milestones in Nigeria’s determination to rid society of the devastating menace of illicit drugs.

The association therefore calls on all Nigerians to support the anti-drug campaign, protect young people from the destructive influence of narcotics and work collectively towards building a healthier, safer and more responsible society.

*Comrade Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko is the National Coordinator of the
HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (HURIWA) and was NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF the NATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION OF NIGERIA.

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Opinion

*PFIPC scam that threatens the integrity of government *

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By Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko

PFIPC SCANDAL:

The PFIPC scandal centers on allegations that an agency known as the Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council was listed in government budgetary provisions, yet was subsequently described by the office of the Nigerian president through the chief of staff Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila as a fictitious entity. This has brought issues of budget integrity, transparency, and public financial management under scrutiny.

Key Facts
1. Budget Allocation: PFIPC/Presidential Economic Advisory Council was allocated over ₦1.3 billion (N1,302,978,784) in the 2026 Appropriation Act. This included N802.9m for personnel, N200m overhead, and N300m capital.
2. Presidential Position: The Presidency stated on July 1, 2026 that PFIPC is a “fictitious body that was never established by the Federal Government”. The Chief of Staff also issued a disclaimer warning the public that the office does not exist.
3. Allegations: The purported DG, Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi, is facing trial for conspiracy, forgery and impersonation. He alleged a N27.4bn take-off grant was involved and that 48% was demanded as a cut by the President’s chief of staff Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila who has stridently denied the allegations and distanced himself from the formation or operations of the so-called phantom agency.

Key Concerns
1. Budget Integrity:The inclusion of PFIPC in allocations despite its disputed status raises questions about due diligence.
2. Governance: a well-known CSO SERAP noted the matter raises serious concerns regarding the integrity of Nigeria’s appropriations process and legislative oversight.
3. Public Trust: Erstwhile Vice President of Nigeria and the Presidential candidate of the opposition African Democratic Congress (APC) Alhaji Atiku Abubakar described it as a “crisis of institutional credibility”.

Stakeholder Reactions
– Senate: Says no petition has been submitted and that the National Assembly neither created nor inserted the agency’s budget line.
– SERAP: Asked Senate President Akpabio and Speaker Abbas to disclose documents relating to the N1.3bn allocation and to investigate the circumstances.
– CSOs/Politicians: NDC and CEFSAN demanded an independent probe and sack of officials. Atiku gave a 7-day ultimatum for an independent investigation.

Presidential Directive on PFIPC: President Tinubu has directed ICPC to probe the PFIPC scandal. The investigation is to examine false documents, bank accounts, movement of funds, and roles of public officers. MDAs were directed to cooperate.

Recommendation:
It is recommended that the matter if existence of a non-existent agrncy should be subjected to full investigation by relevant oversight and anti-corruption agencies. Strengthening controls in budget preparation and agency creation is critical to prevent recurrence and restore public confidence. Government officials whose roles in the emergence of this so-called fake agency is eventually established should be subjected to administrative or criminal actions.

*EMMANUEL NNADOZIE ONWUBIKO is the founder of the HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA (HURIWA) and was NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF THE NATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION OF NIGERIA.

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Opinion

HURIWA to Tinubu: Stop Attacking Makinde, Invite UN, FBI to Probe Oyo Schoolchildren Abduction

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By George Mgbeleke

The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) has condemned what it described as the Presidency’s desperate attempt to discredit Governor Seyi Makinde’s call for an independent international investigation into the abduction of schoolchildren and teachers in Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State.

Rather than vilifying Governor Makinde, the Federal Government should embrace transparency by inviting the United Nations, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other internationally respected investigative bodies to independently examine every aspect of the horrifying 56-day captivity and the circumstances surrounding the rescue operation.

If the Federal Government has nothing to hide, why is it uncomfortable with an independent investigation?

If security agencies have given Nigerians the full story, why the hostility towards international scrutiny?

Democracy thrives on accountability, not official propaganda.

HURIWA finds it curious that instead of welcoming an opportunity to strengthen public confidence, presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga chose to attack Governor Makinde for demanding answers to questions that millions of Nigerians are already asking.

These are not political questions. They are questions arising from a national tragedy.

Where are the bodies of the terrorists reportedly neutralised during the operation?

Where are the terrorists said to have been arrested?

Who are these suspects and why have Nigerians not been given verifiable information about them?

Why was a newly trained Army officer reportedly deployed to lead such a dangerous rescue operation when Nigeria has thousands of highly experienced combat officers?

Who are the soldiers reportedly wounded, and under what circumstances were they injured?

Why were traumatised children and teachers hurried before television cameras for public interviews instead of first receiving comprehensive psychological evaluation, trauma counselling and professional debriefing?

Why did government officials appear more interested in public relations than in the emotional recovery of victims who had endured nearly two months in terrorist captivity?

These are legitimate questions in any democratic society. They cannot be dismissed as politics.

HURIWA fully supports Governor Seyi Makinde’s demand for an independent investigation because the incident raises issues that go beyond Oyo State. It touches directly on national security, institutional accountability and the constitutional duty of government to protect lives.

The association rejects every attempt to portray calls for transparency as an attack on Nigeria’s sovereignty.

Independent investigations are globally recognised mechanisms for establishing facts where public confidence has been shaken. Nigeria itself has welcomed international investigations in several instances involving human rights and security concerns. It would therefore amount to double standards to reject such scrutiny now.

HURIWA insists that transparency should never frighten an innocent government.

The Tinubu administration should immediately demonstrate confidence in its own narrative by formally inviting the United Nations, the FBI and other credible international investigative institutions to independently establish the facts surrounding the abduction, the prolonged captivity, the rescue operation and every institutional action taken before, during and after the incident.

History will not remember those who silenced questions. It will remember those who pursued the truth.

The children deserve the truth.

Their families deserve the truth.

Nigeria deserves the truth.

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