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State of the Nigerian Economy: Government Claims of Growth Versus Growing Hardship Among Nigerians*

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By Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko

There is an obvious irony in the country at the moment marked by the factually error-prone assumption by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration that maintains that the economy is recovering and is on a sustainable growth path. Official data support parts of this position, but household-level data show that most Nigerians continue to face severe economic hardship. From a human rights perspective, the key test is whether macroeconomic growth is translating into the realization of the right to food, decent work, and an adequate standard of living. This is the heart of the matter.

Last week, the spokesperson of President Tinubu, Mr. Bayo Onanuga made a highly unproven claim that the story about mass hunger in Nigeria is not true. He said he made a tour by road from Ogun State to Lagos State or so, and he saw public works such as highway construction going on and he saw that many ordinary people were going about their daily tasks which gives him the impression that all is well with Nigerians. This claim by Onanuga is simplistic and lacks logical grounding. The truth is that even the president has personally pleaded with Nigerians to exercise patience and that the economic reforms his administration is implementing, would inevitably lift millions of Nigerians away from poverty. So if the president acknowledge that there is hardship in Nigeria, why is his appointees Mr. Bayo Onanuga making a contradictory claim? Anyway, the government broadly, feels that it is getting it fine with rebuilding the national economy.

What the President Tinubu’s government points to: Gross Domestic Product growth and macroeconomic stability:
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that real Gross Domestic Product growth picked up in 2025 after rebasing the national accounts to 2019. Growth was 3.13 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 1, January to March 2025, accelerated to 4.23 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 2, April to June 2025, and was 3.98 percent Year-on-Year in Quarter 3, July to September 2025. The full-year 2025 estimate is 3.87 percent, with Quarter 4, October to December 2025 at 4.07 percent Year-on-Year.

International institutions project continued expansion. The International Monetary Fund forecasts 4.0 percent growth in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026. The World Bank projects 4.2 percent in 2025, rising to 4.4 percent by 2027.

Other indicators cited by government include: Gross Domestic Product of $285.003 billion nominal and $2.254 trillion in Purchasing Power Parity for 2025; foreign exchange reserves above $42 billion; a current account surplus of 6.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product in the first half of 2025; and a projected decline in public debt from 42.9 percent to 39.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product. Headline inflation eased from 34.80 percent in December 2024 to 24.48 percent in January 2025 after the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index. The National Bureau of Statistics recorded 15.69 percent in April 2026, while the International Monetary Fund estimates 16.0 percent for 2026.

The reality on the ground: Rising poverty, food insecurity, and constrained livelihoods. This is a generally agreed factually accurate report from the streets.
The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update states that poverty increased to 63 percent in 2025, or approximately 140 million Nigerians living below the poverty line. This is up from 56 percent in 2023 and 61 percent in 2024. PricewaterhouseCoopers projects 141 million Nigerians, or 62 percent, will be poor in 2026.

Food affordability is the most acute pressure point. The World Bank reports that the cost of a basic food basket has increased five times since 2019, with poor households spending up to 70 percent of income on food. The World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria stated: “Food inflation is the biggest tax on the poor”. The International Monetary Fund also flagged that 27 million Nigerians faced food insecurity in the second half of 2025.

Besides, real household welfare is deteriorating. PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates that while nominal household spending grew 19.6 percent to 139.3 trillion Naira in 2025, real spending contracted by 2.5 percent after inflation. Labour groups argue that Gross Domestic Product figures are disconnected from living conditions, describing the situation as “growth without development”. Official unemployment is estimated at 4.9 percent for 2025, but informal employment remains very high at 92.8 percent according to National Bureau of Statistics and International Labour Organization estimates.

Why growth is not reaching most Nigerians: An exclusionary pattern:
Analysts attribute the gap to the structure of growth. Expansion is concentrated in services and capital-intensive industry, while agriculture, which employs most poor people, is lagging. The International Monetary Fund projects per-capita income growth of only 0.6 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026, which is too low to reduce poverty in a meaningful way. ActionAid Nigeria notes that the federal budget rose from $3.1 billion in 1999 to $36 billion in 2025, yet poverty increased from 42.7 percent to 61 percent over the same period.

The World Bank frames this as a rights and policy challenge: “The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians — especially the poor and vulnerable”. It recommends removing trade barriers, improving fiscal transparency, and expanding social protection through regular cash transfers.

Conclusion
By macroeconomic measures, Nigeria’s economy is growing faster, inflation is down from its peak, and external buffers are stronger. However, with poverty at 63 percent, food costs rising sharply, and real household spending declining, growth has not yet produced broad-based improvements in living standards. Until policy links Gross Domestic Product growth to agriculture, jobs, and food affordability, many Nigerians will continue to experience what labour groups describe as “growth without development”. (Authoritative sources: National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Nigeria Development Update, International Monetary Fund, PricewaterhouseCoopers, ActionAid Nigeria.)

*EMMANUEL NNADOZIE ONWUBIKO is the founder of the HUMAN RIGHTS WRITERS ASSOCIATION OF NIGERIA and was NATIONAL COMMISSIONER OF THE NATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS COMMISSION OF NIGERIA.

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Opinion

NDC JUDGMENT: Nigeria’s Democracy is on trial, Judiciary must not become a tool for Political Exclusion -HURIWA

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By George Mgbeleke

The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) expresses profound concern over the recent judgment of the Federal High Court in Lokoja setting aside its earlier decision that led to the registration of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), a development that has generated widespread apprehension among democratic stakeholders, civil society organisations and millions of Nigerians who believe in political plurality and constitutional democracy.

While HURIWA respects the authority of the courts and acknowledges the constitutional right of litigants to seek judicial remedies, we are compelled to state that the circumstances surrounding this judgment have raised troubling questions about the sanctity of judicial decisions, the stability of democratic institutions and the future of opposition politics in Nigeria.

At a time when Nigerians are grappling with unprecedented economic hardship, worsening insecurity, rising unemployment and declining public trust in governance, it is unfortunate that the nation’s political discourse is increasingly being dominated by controversies that create the impression that democratic institutions are being deployed to constrict rather than expand political participation.

The controversy surrounding the NDC is no longer merely a legal matter. It has evolved into a national democratic concern because of the implications it carries for political inclusion, electoral competition and citizens’ constitutional rights to freely associate and participate in governance.

HURIWA is particularly concerned by the growing perception among Nigerians that opposition politics is coming under coordinated pressure ahead of the 2027 general elections. Whether such fears are justified or not, the responsibility lies with state institutions to act transparently, independently and in strict compliance with constitutional principles in order to maintain public confidence.

Democracy thrives when political competition is encouraged, when citizens have multiple choices at the ballot box and when institutions remain neutral arbiters in political disputes. Democracy begins to weaken when citizens perceive that political outcomes are being predetermined through administrative, judicial or extra-political mechanisms.

The judiciary occupies a sacred position in any democracy. It is the final refuge of the ordinary citizen and the last line of defence against abuse of power. Consequently, judges and judicial officers must be guided not only by the letter of the law but also by the overriding obligation to preserve public confidence in the integrity, impartiality and independence of the justice system.

HURIWA warns that any perception that judicial processes are being weaponised for political ends poses a grave danger to constitutional democracy. History has repeatedly demonstrated that democratic institutions are weakened not only by overt authoritarianism but also by subtle and incremental encroachments on political freedoms and institutional independence.

We are equally disturbed by recent political developments which, when viewed collectively, are fuelling concerns about the shrinking of democratic space. The increasing use of state institutions in politically sensitive matters, the apparent hostility towards emerging political platforms, and the growing atmosphere of uncertainty surrounding opposition politics have created a climate that requires urgent reassurance from those entrusted with the stewardship of the Nigerian state.

HURIWA therefore calls on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to publicly and unequivocally reaffirm his commitment to multiparty democracy, political inclusion and free electoral competition. A government that enjoys the confidence of the people should have no reason to fear opposition parties, dissenting voices or alternative political movements.

We also call on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to maintain strict neutrality and ensure that its actions are guided solely by the Constitution and relevant electoral laws. The Commission must resist any pressure, direct or indirect, capable of undermining public confidence in its independence.

Furthermore, we urge the National Judicial Council (NJC) to continue strengthening mechanisms that promote judicial accountability, transparency and public trust. The integrity of the judiciary must never be allowed to become a casualty of partisan political contests.

To the international community, democracy advocates and development partners, HURIWA urges sustained attention to developments within Nigeria’s democratic space. The preservation of democratic values, electoral integrity and institutional independence remains essential to political stability and sustainable development.

We equally call on political parties, civil society groups, youth organisations, professional associations and democratic activists to remain vigilant and committed to peaceful, lawful and constitutional engagement in defence of democratic principles.

The struggle to preserve democracy is not the responsibility of politicians alone. It is the collective responsibility of all Nigerians.

What is at stake today extends far beyond the registration or deregistration of any single political party. What is at stake is the future of democratic competition, the independence of public institutions, the credibility of the electoral process and the constitutional right of Nigerians to freely choose those who govern them.

Nigeria’s democracy was built through decades of sacrifice, resistance and struggle. It must not be weakened by actions that create doubts about the neutrality of institutions or the openness of the political process.

HURIWA therefore urges all stakeholders to place national interest above partisan calculations and ensure that Nigeria remains a vibrant, inclusive and genuinely democratic nation where no citizen, political party or political movement is denied its legitimate place within the democratic process.

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Opinion

State police is a good development but liberalising ownership of military grade guns for law-abiding adults is key to defeating terrorists — HURIWA

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By George Mgbeleke

The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) welcomes the historic passage by the Senate of the Constitution Alteration Bill on State Police and acknowledges it as a major milestone in the nation’s long and difficult search for a more effective security architecture. HURIWA however for the umpteenth time, has proposed that government should allow adult citizens of Nigeria with zero-crime record to bear sophisticated, military grade weapons for self-defence just as it says Liberal gun ownership would effectively curb terrorism.

For nearly two decades, HURIWA has consistently championed the establishment of state police and the decentralisation of Nigeria’s policing system. Long before it became fashionable for politicians and public office holders to embrace the idea, HURIWA had repeatedly argued that a nation of over 200 million people, with vast geographical territory, complex ethnic configurations, diverse security threats and thousands of communities spread across difficult terrains, cannot effectively be policed from a single command structure headquartered in Abuja.

For years, HURIWA warned that the over-centralisation of policing would inevitably produce intelligence failures, delayed responses to emergencies, weak community engagement and a dangerous disconnect between security agencies and the populations they are expected to protect. Sadly, events over the years have vindicated these concerns.
From the Boko Haram insurgency that devastated communities across the North-East, to the scourge of banditry in the North-West, the recurring massacres in farming communities in the North-Central, the epidemic of kidnappings on highways and in homes across the federation, attacks on schools, religious institutions and traditional communities, to violent criminality in urban and rural centres alike, Nigerians have witnessed the painful consequences of a security structure that is overstretched, under-resourced and often disconnected from local realities.

However, HURIWA wishes to state unequivocally that while state police is necessary, it is not a magic wand. It is not a silver bullet. It is not, by itself, the definitive answer to the grave security emergency confronting Nigeria.
The danger before the nation is that the political class may celebrate the passage of the State Police Bill as though the mere creation of new policing institutions will automatically defeat terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, mass murderers and organised criminal networks. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
The Nigerian security crisis is deeper and more complex than the question of policing structures alone.

For years, HURIWA has consistently raised alarm over the apparent resilience and sophistication of terrorist and criminal networks operating within Nigeria. The association has repeatedly questioned how violent non-state actors continue to obtain intelligence, evade security operations, acquire weapons, coordinate attacks and sustain their operations despite enormous security expenditures by successive governments.
The time has come for Nigeria to confront uncomfortable truths.
No meaningful security reform can succeed without a determined effort to identify, expose and prosecute collaborators, sponsors, informants and criminal enablers who provide support to terrorists, kidnappers, bandits and other violent groups. Security institutions must undergo continuous internal accountability mechanisms to ensure that criminal infiltration, corruption and compromise do not undermine the nation’s collective security efforts.

Equally important is the urgent need to modernise intelligence gathering, forensic investigations, surveillance capabilities, border management systems and inter-agency cooperation. In far too many cases, security responses remain reactive rather than preventive. Communities are attacked, citizens are killed, homes are burnt and property is destroyed before security agencies arrive at the scene.
This cycle must end.

HURIWA also believes that discussions around security must go beyond armed responses. The Federal Government and sub-national governments must address the underlying social and economic conditions that continue to fuel insecurity. Mass youth unemployment, widespread poverty, illiteracy, institutional injustice, rural neglect and governance failures have created fertile conditions for criminal recruitment and social instability.
A nation cannot successfully fight insecurity while simultaneously neglecting the welfare and aspirations of millions of young people.
The association further reiterates its longstanding position that the constitutional guarantee of the right to life imposes a sacred obligation on government to provide effective protection for all citizens irrespective of their location, social status, religion or ethnicity.
The painful reality today is that millions of Nigerians living in rural communities remain effectively abandoned. Farmers are unable to cultivate their lands without fear. Villagers sleep with one eye open. Travellers embark on journeys uncertain whether they will arrive alive. Parents send their children to school with anxiety. Communities continue to establish informal self-help arrangements because they lack confidence that help will arrive when danger strikes.
This situation is unacceptable in any democratic society.
HURIWA therefore calls for a comprehensive national security reform agenda that must include the effective implementation of state police, strengthened community policing initiatives, enhanced intelligence capabilities, improved welfare and training for security personnel, technological modernisation of law enforcement institutions, stronger border security measures, judicial reforms that guarantee swift prosecution of violent offenders, and the establishment of complementary security mechanisms capable of supporting existing agencies.
The association recalls that over the years it has repeatedly advocated the establishment of a National Guard structure that can provide additional layers of security support during emergencies and periods of heightened threats. Such a mechanism, if properly designed and professionally managed, could strengthen national resilience against terrorism, organised criminality and large-scale security disruptions.
HURIWA also urges lawmakers, governors, civil society organisations, traditional rulers, professional associations and security experts to ensure that the emerging state police framework incorporates robust safeguards against abuse. Nigerians must never replace one form of security failure with another.
State police must not become instruments of political intimidation, partisan vendetta, ethnic persecution or religious discrimination. Recruitment processes must be transparent. Oversight institutions must be independent. Accountability mechanisms must be strong. Human rights protections must be non-negotiable.
The ultimate objective of any security architecture is not the accumulation of power by government institutions but the protection of human lives and the preservation of human dignity.
As the constitutional amendment process continues through the House of Representatives and the State Houses of Assembly, HURIWA calls on all stakeholders to approach the issue with patriotism, sincerity and an unwavering commitment to the security of the Nigerian people.
Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads.
The creation of state police offers an opportunity to correct a longstanding structural weakness in our security framework. Yet history will judge this generation of leaders not by the passage of legislation alone but by whether they succeed in making Nigeria safer for ordinary citizens.
The mothers whose children have been abducted, the farmers driven from their lands, the communities destroyed by terrorists, the travellers kidnapped on highways, the worshippers attacked in their places of devotion and the countless victims of violent criminality across Nigeria deserve more than political declarations.
They deserve security.
They deserve justice.
They deserve a country where life is valued and protected.
The passage of the State Police Bill is a significant beginning. The hard work of securing Nigeria has only just begun.
Signed

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Opinion

HURIWA Blasts Onanuga’s “No Hunger” Claim, Says Millions of Nigerians Cannot Eat Roads, Propaganda or Official Denials

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By George Mgbeleke

The Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA) has expressed profound shock and disappointment over the recent remarks by the Special Adviser to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, claiming that he does not see the level of hunger Nigerians complain about.
HURIWA describes the statement as one of the most disturbing examples of official detachment from the daily realities confronting ordinary Nigerians. The assertion is not supported by empirical evidence, scientific data or credible national and international assessments. Rather, it appears to be based on personal impressions that cannot substitute for verifiable facts.
In a statement signed by its National Coordinator,Comrade Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko, HURIWA said, “For a senior presidential spokesman to dismiss widespread complaints of hunger because he observed people engaging in commercial activities or because he travelled on newly constructed roads is both logically flawed and insensitive to the suffering of millions of citizens struggling to survive the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.
Nigerians cannot eat roads.
They cannot feed their families with official optimism.
They cannot survive on government public relations narratives while food prices continue to soar beyond the reach of ordinary households.
Mr. Onanuga’s comments stand in direct contradiction to the findings of respected international agencies. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) recently classified Nigeria among 13 global hunger hotspots where acute food insecurity is projected to worsen significantly between June and November 2026.
Even more alarming is the WFP’s warning that approximately 34.8 million Nigerians could face crisis-level or worse food insecurity between July and September 2026. The same report highlights the plight of over 3.6 million internally displaced persons across the North-east, North-west and North-central regions.
These are not opposition figures speaking.
These are not social media commentators.
These are globally respected humanitarian institutions whose assessments are based on rigorous field research, data collection and internationally recognised methodologies.
HURIWA therefore finds it deeply troubling that a senior government official would seek to downplay a crisis that international organisations, development partners, humanitarian agencies and millions of affected Nigerians acknowledge as real and worsening.
The association challenges Mr. Onanuga to leave the comfort of official residences, convoys and carefully managed environments and undertake a genuine fact-finding tour across Nigeria.
Let him travel through communities in Kaduna, Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Niger, Plateau, Benue and Borno States.
Let him engage market women whose capital has been wiped out by inflation.
Let him speak with pensioners choosing between food and medication.
Let him meet displaced families living in camps.
Let him interact with unemployed youths, struggling civil servants, transport workers, artisans and farmers battling insecurity and rising production costs.
Let him visit hospitals where malnutrition cases are increasing and communities where families routinely skip meals because they cannot afford basic food items.
Only then can he begin to appreciate the depth of the economic distress facing millions of Nigerians.
HURIWA is not suggesting that government has done nothing. We acknowledge ongoing infrastructure projects and social intervention initiatives. However, isolated development projects cannot be used to invalidate overwhelming evidence pointing to widespread hardship and food insecurity.
The true measure of economic success is not the number of roads commissioned but whether citizens can afford three meals a day, whether parents can provide for their children, whether workers earn enough to live with dignity and whether vulnerable populations are protected from hunger and deprivation.
A government that wishes to solve a problem must first acknowledge its existence.
Denying or minimising the suffering of citizens does not make that suffering disappear.
The association therefore urges the Presidency to embrace facts over public relations, evidence over assumptions and empathy over dismissiveness. Nigeria’s hunger crisis requires urgent, honest and coordinated action, not rhetorical attempts to explain away the lived experiences of millions of struggling citizens.
History has shown that governments are strongest not when they deny uncomfortable realities, but when they confront them with courage, sincerity and practical solutions.
Signed
Comrade Emmanuel Nnadozie Onwubiko National Coordinator Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA)

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